Swing States Pose Obstacles to Obama's Reelection

I was starting to hedge a bit on my prediction of President Obama's defeat next November, but maybe I shouldn't worry about it. Reelection looks pretty remote at this point.

See USA Today, from earlier this week, "Swing States poll: Obama's path to 2nd term an uphill climb":

WASHINGTON – For President Obama, the path to a second term is going to be an uphill climb.

While Americans across the nation are downbeat about the economy and the future, a special USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds that voters in a dozen key battleground states for the 2012 election are in an even deeper funk about their lives, Obama's tenure and the nation's politics.

One year before Election Day, the debut Swing States survey charts a narrower and more difficult course to victory for Obama than he navigated four years ago — and shows opportunities for Republicans in some states that have gone Democratic for decades.

Obama has "had some really good ideas … but he's struggling with trying to get his ideas into place and dealing with Congress, and he hasn't done a very good job with that," Mary Jo Jones, 57, of Grand Rapids, Mich., said in a followup interview after being surveyed. She supported Obama in 2008 but would consider switching in 2012 to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, if Republicans nominate him. "He seems to be a pretty good businessman, and he might have some ideas to help us on the economy."

Michigan, which has backed the Democratic candidate in the last five presidential elections, is among the 12 swing states likely to determine the outcome next year. The others are Florida, North Carolina and Virginia in the South; Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the Mountain West; Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast.

Continue reading.

Unemployment's down to 9 percent nationwide --- pretty lousy, I know, but we have the Electoral College, so it's the state numbers that will matter most. I've mentioned Ohio quite a bit in earlier analyses. Ohio's unemployment rate is 10 percent and the state has 18 electors. Pennsylvania's cited as a swing state and the state's got 20 electors. Pennsylvania reported an 8.3 percent unemployment rate in September, which apparently triggered the extension of unemployment benefits. Pennsylvania's unemployment was 8.8 percent when Obama took office, so folks will be hammering him on the campaign trail: "Where are the jobs?" We'll just continue to look at the key swing states for developments. It's hard out there for a Democrat.

RELATED: At Invincible Armor, "Obama: “We’re Better Off Today Than When I Took Over”."