Chief Justice Roberts Sided With Court's Progressives to Upheld Constitutionality of ObamaCare

I'm not surprised by today's ruling. I noted previously (somewhere around here) that the Court's decision on Arizona's SB 1070 was a warning against premature football-spiking. Chief Justice John Roberts, I suspect, is being extremely careful about preserving the institutional legitimacy of the Court --- and by extension, the legacy of "the natural court" under his leadership.

There's going to be a lot of news all day, so check back here for updates on developments. I'm just trying to digest all of the information and I'm actually trying to listen to some of the speeches. Here's President Obama's reaction:

Check the New York Times, "Supreme Court Lets Health Law Largely Stand," and the Los Angeles Times, "Chief justice leads Supreme Court's support of healthcare law." (Via Memeorandum.)

Ann Althouse has an analysis of the ruling: "Chief Justice Roberts writes an opinion limiting the commerce power and the spending power." And see Lyle Denniston, at SCOTUS Blog, "Don’t call it a mandate — it’s a tax (UPDATED)." And see the ruling plus related documents here: "National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius."

Finally, Neal Munro at the Daily Caller captures the essence of the decision, "In 5-4 decision, Supreme Court rules Obamacare constitutional": The individual mandate in Presid

ent Barack Obama’s health care reform law has been upheld, as a tax, in a 5-4 decision by the United States Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court’s Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the four-vote bloc of progressive judges to uphold the sweeping law, after reinterpreting it as a tax-related law.

The majority opinion, authored by Roberts, said the federal government does not have the constitutional power to compel “individuals to become active in commerce… [so] the individual mandate cannot be sustained.”

But in a stunning move, Roberts reinterpreted the law, allowing it to stand, because he said the federal government has the constitutional authority to tax people — even though the law’s advocates originally denied it was a tax while pushing for its approval in 2010. The Obama administration later argued that it was a tax.

He and the four progressive judges upheld the far-reaching law as a tax law.

Roberts then said the court is not deciding whether the law is fair or wise.

“It is not our role to forbid it or comment on [the law’s] fairness,” said Robert’s decision, which was opposed by four GOP-nominated judges, including Justice Anthony Kennedy, widely considered the court’s swing vote.

RTWT.

And keep checking back here for updates and analysis, and other unrelated blogging, like babe blogging!

Super Tuesday Reinforces GOP Divide

At Wall Street Journal, "Republican Split Decision: Romney Had a Good Night but Santorum Has Cause to Fight On."

Republican elites are aching to declare this race over and take aim at Mr. Obama. The fear is that the intraparty debate is hurting the GOP brand and the image of the candidates. Some of that is inevitable in any primary campaign, but November is a long way off and the American public hasn't concluded that Mr. Obama deserves another term.

The hand-wringing is fruitless in any case. The voters are in charge and their split decision shows that Republicans still haven't settled on a standard-bearer.

See also John Avlon and Ben Jacobs, at The Daily Beast, "No Clear Path to Victory for Romney" (via Memeorandum).

Romney Gains Ground in Crucial Michigan GOP Primary

Mitt Romney really can't lose Michigan. He grew up there, a favorite son, and a loss would demonstrate just how badly his claim to inevitability has collapsed.

At Public Policy Polling, "Michigan GOP race tightens" (via Memeorandum).

Also at The Hill, "Slouching toward nomination, Romney needs win in Michigan" (via Memeorandum).

Santorum Victories Set New Time for GP Race

Republican long shot Rick Santorum poked holes in Mitt Romney's aura of inevitability Tuesday night with a trio of upset victories that shifted the dynamic of the 2012 presidential contest.

The former Pennsylvania senator's wins in the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses and Missouri primary were setbacks for Romney, the national front-runner, who had been expected to cruise easily through a series of relatively minor February voter tests. He must now wait three weeks to regroup, when Arizona and Michigan hold what suddenly are shaping up as unexpectedly important primaries.

In remarks to delirious supporters in St. Charles, Mo., Santorum took a swipe at Romney's big advantage in money and the negative ads he's used to defeat his opponents in previous states. He also lashed out at President Obama, describing him as someone "who thinks he knows better" and doesn't listen to the American people.

"Ladies and gentlemen, I don't stand here to claim to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama," Santorum said, setting off chants of "We pick Rick!"

Reflecting what he sees as the altered shape of the race, Santorum told CNN that "now we're in a little bit of a no-man's land" as the candidates move into states where they haven't had months, or years, to campaign.

Romney, who won Minnesota four years ago, was running a weak third behind Santorum and Ron Paul.

Speaking to a deflated crowd of backers in Denver, Romney said he was "pretty confident" he would come in either first or second in Colorado's caucuses, his last hope for salvaging a bad night. But hours later, state Republican Chairman Ryan Call announced over CNN that Santorum had won.

He congratulated Santorum and said that he looked forward to coming contests and a united party when the primaries ended. But he also struck a pose as a populist outsider, speaking of his father's humble roots and casting himself as the antidote to the problems in the nation's capital.

Swing States Pose Obstacles to Obama's Reelection

I was starting to hedge a bit on my prediction of President Obama's defeat next November, but maybe I shouldn't worry about it. Reelection looks pretty remote at this point.

See USA Today, from earlier this week, "Swing States poll: Obama's path to 2nd term an uphill climb":

WASHINGTON – For President Obama, the path to a second term is going to be an uphill climb.

While Americans across the nation are downbeat about the economy and the future, a special USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds that voters in a dozen key battleground states for the 2012 election are in an even deeper funk about their lives, Obama's tenure and the nation's politics.

One year before Election Day, the debut Swing States survey charts a narrower and more difficult course to victory for Obama than he navigated four years ago — and shows opportunities for Republicans in some states that have gone Democratic for decades.

Obama has "had some really good ideas … but he's struggling with trying to get his ideas into place and dealing with Congress, and he hasn't done a very good job with that," Mary Jo Jones, 57, of Grand Rapids, Mich., said in a followup interview after being surveyed. She supported Obama in 2008 but would consider switching in 2012 to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, if Republicans nominate him. "He seems to be a pretty good businessman, and he might have some ideas to help us on the economy."

Michigan, which has backed the Democratic candidate in the last five presidential elections, is among the 12 swing states likely to determine the outcome next year. The others are Florida, North Carolina and Virginia in the South; Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the Mountain West; Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast.

Continue reading.

Unemployment's down to 9 percent nationwide --- pretty lousy, I know, but we have the Electoral College, so it's the state numbers that will matter most. I've mentioned Ohio quite a bit in earlier analyses. Ohio's unemployment rate is 10 percent and the state has 18 electors. Pennsylvania's cited as a swing state and the state's got 20 electors. Pennsylvania reported an 8.3 percent unemployment rate in September, which apparently triggered the extension of unemployment benefits. Pennsylvania's unemployment was 8.8 percent when Obama took office, so folks will be hammering him on the campaign trail: "Where are the jobs?" We'll just continue to look at the key swing states for developments. It's hard out there for a Democrat.

RELATED: At Invincible Armor, "Obama: “We’re Better Off Today Than When I Took Over”."

VIDEO: Attorney Joel Bennett Issues Statement on Herman Cain Sexual Harassment Allegations

This is a flaming skull story at AoSHQ, "ONE CAIN ACCUSER SAYS SHE HAS CHOSEN "NOT TO RELIVE" THE DETAILS OF THE INCIDENT' SEES "NO VALUE" IN TALKING ABOUT IT PRIVATELY OR PUBLICLY."

And Legal Insurrection has a series on the day's developments:

* "NRA should release everything, or nothing."

* "The case (or not) against Herman Cain."

* "Cain accuser – now not willing to talk // ADDED: Politico and NY Times spin refusal as accuser “confirming” and “standing by” her complaint."

* "Politico now owns most misleading headline ever."

Also, at Hot Air, "Lawyer for Cain’s accuser: On second thought, she’d rather not relive this publicly," and The Other McCain, "Herman Cain Accuser’s Lawyer: ‘No Value of Revisiting the Matter … Now’."

Republicans Hit Obama After Jobs Report

At CNN:

And at New York Times, "Report Shows Gain in Jobs but Growth Is Still Sluggish."

The Cain Bonfire

At WSJ:

Lesson one of the Cain mess is that running a campaign for the Presidency of the United States is unlike anything else in politics, or anything else in American life for that matter. Mr. Cain's remarkable success so far, riding to the top of the GOP preference polls, is a testament to his skills at communicating and his willingness to offer bold policy proposals.

Mr. Cain has proven there is a hunger in the public for roiling the political status quo. If he has disappointed his supporters, which remains to be seen, it is because he hasn't displayed sufficient self-awareness of the requirements of being a top-tier presidential candidate.

Anyone who makes it to the front of the candidate line is going to come under close—make that withering—scrutiny. If in one's past exist two sexual harassment suits formally settled by one's employer, that is going to become public. It is a certainty. Allowing oneself to drift through a campaign until the day the buried bombs go off is amateur hour. Republicans have a right to ask Mr. Cain what he would have said if he won the nomination and the news had broken after Labor Day next year. The Cain campaign would have been smarter to leak the story pre-emptively.

I raised these points days ago, but continue reading the editorial.

RELATED: At Saberpoint, "Raise the Black Flag: Take No Prisoners," and "Men's Rights Online: Reasons for False Charges of 'Sexual Harassment'."

Nate Silver: 'Harassment Allegations Could Cut at Core of Cain's Appeal'

And I'm quoted at the post, at FiveThirtyEight.

Jennifer Rubin: Cain's Race Politics 'Reprehensible'

Well, folks got after Jennifer Rubin last week for thrashing Rick Perry, although it turns out she's an equal opportunity thrasher. She really hammers Cain here: "Cain’s noxious racial politics":

This is reprehensible....

Cain and his defenders, like actors in a theatrical tragedy, are falling prey to the very evil they labored against: the propensity to assign political identity by race and to invoke race to shield one from personal responsibility. Cain is in trouble because he didn’t handle a past claim that even a political novice would know would come to light.

Herman Cain Chief of Staff Accuses Rick Perry Campaign of Leaking Sexual Harassment Bombshell

Well, whoever dug the dirt has to be twisting his mustache with glee at this point. The Herman Cain campaign implosion has reached near-meltdown, and soon there won't be much left of it, and it's only Wednesday. Dan Riehl pulls no punches with the headline: "You Lie! Cain's House of Cards Collapses as He Tries to Blame Perry." And following the link takes us to Richard Miniter, "Cain Says Perry Camp Behind Sex Harassment Leak." And from Jonathan Karl, at ABC News, "Cain Adviser Accuses Perry Campaign of Leaking Harassment Story, Demands Apology."

The Cain story just took another bizarre turn.

That's for sure.

Check Memeorandum for all the links, and also Dan Collins, "What We Still Don’t Know About the Herman Cain Accusations." And at The Caucus, "Cain Faults Perry as More Allegations Emerge."

Herman Cain Campaign Knew of Politico Hit Piece 10 Days in Advance

As outrageous as this whole thing is, I'm still pretty taken aback by how amateurish was the Cain's campaign's response to the revelations. Here's this from the front page at this morning's Los Angeles Times, "Harassment allegations trip up Herman Cain":

Many conservative activists were quick Monday to rally behind Cain. L. Brent Bozell III, a frequent media critic, called the allegations a "high-tech lynching," summoning the language Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas used when accused of harassment at his explosive 1991 confirmation hearings.

"This will play to his advantage with the grass roots," predicted K.B. Forbes, a GOP strategist who has worked for previous insurgent candidates. "One of their favorite lines is, 'It's the liberal media.'"

But for insiders — donors, Republican strategists and others among the political establishment — the episode could raise further doubts about Cain as well as concerns about the wherewithal of his seat-of-its-pants campaign operation.

According to Politico, campaign operatives knew the article was coming for 10 days. And yet in its initial statement — which was widely circulated — the campaign did not deny the harassment allegations. That was left, many hours later, to Cain.

The campaign had almost two weeks to prepare. Cain needed to have a press release ready to go, which would have also served as his crib sheet in responding to allegations. This is Campaigns and Elections 101. It's the basics of rapid response politics. Had Cain come out with a strong statement Sunday night he could have stayed on message all day yesterday, during his whirlwind network interview rounds. Instead, he dug a hole from which he needs to quickly extricate himself.

EARLIER: "Herman Cain's Accuser Speaks Out."

Herman Cain's Accuser Speaks Out

Lots of developments in the Herman Cain sexual harassment scandal.

CNN has this, "Attorney for Cain accuser: Cain is lying."

Also, at Los Angeles Times, "Herman Cain accuser wants to talk, her lawyer says":

One of Herman Cain’s accusers wants to be heard.

Her lawyer told the Washington Post on Tuesday that she is ready to tell her side of the ongoing saga involving allegations of sexual harassment while Cain was head of the National Restaurant Assn. in the late 1990s.

But, the lawyer, Joel Bennett, said the woman remains bound by the confidentiality agreement she signed as part of a settlement of her claim with the association.

“It is just frustrating that Herman Cain is going around bad-mouthing the two complainants, and my client is blocked by a confidentiality agreement,” Bennett told the Post. “The National Restaurant Assn. ought to release them and allow them to respond.”

In an appearance Tuesday evening on Fox News Channel, Cain demurred when asked whether the woman should be given a chance to provide her version of events.

“There are legal implications if the restaurant association waives that. I just found out about this today -- there are legal implications" he said, adding that "we can't answer that right now. It's too soon."

Cain was asked on Fox whether he had breached the agreement by discussing the allegations publicly, thus freeing the woman to talk. He said he hadn’t because he had never identified the name of the one woman who’s complaint Cain says he recalls.

At New York Times, "Cain Accuser Got a Year’s Salary in Severance Pay."

Herman Cain on PBS NewsHour

Here's Judy Woodruff with the interview. Herman Cain has aligned the story lines. We'll see what comes up through the rest of the day, because boy, the Democrat-Media-Complex sure smells blood:

And stay with it all the way through. Cain starts to lay out some intriguing thoughts on foreign policy. I like what he says about China in particular.

RELATED: The big story at New York Times, "Cain Confronts Claim From '90s of Sexual Harassment."

Kevin Williamson on Herman Cain Allegations

See: "Why This Could Be the End of Cain."

It's a competence critique, focusing on the managerial side of things.

I'm more worried about the initial waffling, which is another word for indecision, which is not supposed to be characteristic of Herman Cain.

Ann Coulter: Politico's Herman Cain Smear 'Another High-Tech Lynching'

And see Roger Simon, at PJ Media, "Politico and Cain: Return of the High-Tech Lynching."

VIDEO: Herman Cain Interview with Greta Van Susteren

And William Jacobson's got an excellent entry, "A taste of the medicine."

And talking about the original Politico hit piece, Glenn Reynolds adds:

Would Jonathan Martin, Maggie Haberman, Anna Palmer and Kenneth Vogel have put their names on a similar piece, with no named sources, aimed at Barack Obama? Would Politico have run it? I think we know the answer.

More links at the post.

Also, at Memeorandum and London's (salacious) Daily Mail, "'I don't even remember her name': Herman Cain denies sexual harassment claims as he admits he knew BOTH women."

PREVIOUSLY: "Herman Cain Sexual Harassment Scandal Upends GOP Presidential Race."

Herman Cain Sexual Harassment Scandal Upends GOP Presidential Race

I'm just now getting back on the grid, and Herman Cain's story seems to be going through some transformations. Here's the short version of Cain's denial of the allegations on Fox News this morning:

I listened to the longer version this morning at Hot Air, "Cain: “I was falsely accused” of sexual harassment at trade group." Cain sounded completely confident and he gave a flat-out denial.

Except, was it the truth? Maybe there's some shading going on and the story's basically the same. The update's at Hot Air, "Revealed: Cain describes hand gesture that led to harassment claim; Update: Small settlement, says Cain." Check that post. One of those interviewed in the original Politico report is no longer taking questions. I'm still learning on this, but The Other McCain has huge roundup, "Herman Cain at the National Press Club." And here's video of Cain's statement at the Press Club:

Time has that, "Facing a Media Scrum, Cain Boisterously Denies Harassment Allegations":

Ever since he began topping presidential polls, the media has been drafting pieces of Cain’s political obituary: unpacking his campaign’s organizational woes, his tortured answers to questions on abortion and foreign policy, his puzzling scheduling strategy. Now they wanted to witness the last breaths. But the candidate showed up boisterous and smiling, and after skating through a stump speech laden with humor and light on policy, Cain mopped a patina of sweat from his brow and stepped to the lecturn to face his questioners. “I would be delighted to clear the air,” he said.

“Number one, in all of my over 40 years of business experience … I have never sexually harassed anyone,” Cain announced. “Number two, while at the restaurant association, I was accused of sexual harassment. Falsely accused, I might add. I was falsely accused of sexual harassment, and when the charges were brought, as the leader of the organization, I recused myself and allowed my general counsel and my human resource officer to deal with the situation. And it was concluded after a thorough investigation that it had no basis.

“As far as a settlement,” Cain continued, “I am unaware of any sort of settlement. I hope it wasn’t for much, because I didn’t do anything.” He declined to speculate whether the source of the Politico article cataloging the allegations was an opposition leak, called the kerfuffle “a witch hunt,” and suggested there was nothing further to pursue.

And now back to Politico for the latest, "Cain acknowledges settlement details."

I don't expect too much damage to Cain's candidacy, barring any 11th hour revelations. What's troubling is the changing story line, which makes Cain looks amateurish if not inept. His demeanor is vigorous in responding, fortunately, but these late acknowledgements raise questions of veracity.

An upside is that Cain's getting a lot of "earned" media (which really unearned, in a sense) which may have the salutary effect of bolstering Cain's rise in the polls, especially if regular folks agree that these are specious allegations amounting to an opportunistic witch hunt, as Cain suggests.

Here's the latest Memeorandum link. I'll have more later.

Added: From Jennifer Rubin, "Cain gets tripped up on the facts: Will this kill the campaign?:

The error Cain made was in not getting the entire story out early, completely and truthfully. He left the day with voters and the media more confused than ever.

This may not be the end of the Cain campaign, but it will take a toll. The never-ending stories here suggest Cain hasn’t been honest with the public. That’s going to be harder to explain than the original allegations.

He should be okay if that's the end of the allegations. But if more facts come out that Cain hedged or denies, well, it's not going to be pretty.

With Weak Economy, Obama May Lose Key Demographic Groups

See LAT, "Obama's demographic support may not weather economy."

Actually, blacks are still enthusiastic about the president. See NYT, "Black Voters’ Support for Obama Is Steady and Strong." But check the graphic at LAT, "Key States for Obama's Reelection." White voters in Florida, Ohio and Nevada will be especially crucial, and Latinos as well, who aren't going to be as wedded to the Democrats as black voters. Colorado and New Mexico will be problematic as well, despite higher levels of college educated whites. Perhaps that's why Obama continues to ramp up the class warfare rhetoric. Polls show a lot of sympathy with the occupy movement. No doubt the White House hopes the protesters don't start turning on him, mentioning that he's in the pocket of these same big banks and Wall Street brokerages. See Weasel Zip, "Obama Uses Occupy Wall Street’s Language, Rails Against “The Top 1%”…"

Herman Cain Sexual Harassment Allegations

At Los Angeles Times, "Herman Cain denies allegations of sexual harassment."

The full coverage is at Memeorandum, and see The Other McCain, "Cain Spokesman: ‘Smear Campaign Meant to Discredit a True Patriot’."